Parsing the Federal Reserve chief’s utterances is a venerable, mystical and nearly universal pursuit on Wall Street.
So it’s no surprise that Wednesday’s blockbuster testimony would all spawn number of theories.
Here’s one that I think deserves our attention, especially for bond investors who are wondering when to jump back into the market. The theory of a contrarian view to the understanding that the Fed will raise interest rates one more time next month.
It’s courtesy of Northern Trust Co. chief economist Paul Kasriel, who zeroed in on this excerpt from Ben Bernanke’s testimony:
“The lags between policy actions and their effects providing that we must be forward-looking, basing our policy choices on the longer-term outlook for both inflation and economic growth. Formulating Outlook that, we must take into account the possible future effects of previous policy actions - that is, of policy effects still ‘in the pipeline. ”
“In the pipeline” implies past rate hikes. For Mr. Kasriel, it also implies that the Fed has completed its job, that it already has its finger on the pause button.
Moreover, Mr. Kasriel suggests that Mr. Bernanke is already mulling over the easing cycle to come.
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